Joe Biden and Donald Trump secured their respective party nominations for the 2024 presidential race several weeks ago, setting the stage for the first White House rematch since the mid-20th century.
Joe Biden
Despite this, tens of thousands of primary voters continue to cast ballots against both candidates, highlighting an issue with rallying the base that each contender has acknowledged.
Can President Biden overcome the dissatisfaction among those who have been voting “uncommitted” or similar options in the Democratic primaries, largely in response to his policies on the Israel-Hamas conflict?
Similarly, will former President Trump manage to win back Republican primary voters who have been supporting former rival Nikki Haley, especially considering her recent departure from the race?
The answers won’t be clear until November.
While Tuesday’s primaries indicated that the number of non-Biden and Trump votes is relatively small compared to those backing them, they could still wield influence if the 2024 election is close and determined by a few narrowly divided states, as seen in 2016 and 2020.
Take Wisconsin, for example.
In Tuesday’s primaries, both Biden and Trump lost more votes from their parties than the total margin that decided Wisconsin in the past two general elections.
On the Democratic side, with 97% of the expected vote reported, approximately 48,000 people voted “uninstructed” over Biden.
On the Republican side, with 99% of the expected ballots reported, about 76,000 voters chose Haley over Trump.
Wisconsin was decided in the 2016 general election by about 23,000 votes and in 2020 by just 20,000 votes.
This isn’t the only instance in a swing state.
In Arizona’s primary race in mid-March, approximately 45,000 Democratic voters chose someone other than Biden, and about 132,000 Republican voters cast ballots for a candidate other than Trump, even though Haley was still running during Arizona’s voting period before suspending her campaign.
In 2020, Biden won Arizona in the general election by just 11,000 votes.
Historically, the bases of the major parties, no matter how fractured they become during primaries due to policy and personality differences, tend to rally around their nominees eventually.
Successful presidential candidates in the past have had to contend with a notable minority of primary voters not choosing them.
In 2012, when President Barack Obama ran for reelection without facing serious opposition among Democrats, over 40% of ballots in Kentucky went to the “uncommitted” option, while North Carolina saw about 200,000 primary votes for “no preference” instead of Obama. In Alabama, “uncommitted” received about 45,000 votes.
Obama went on to win the general election, although he lost North Carolina to GOP nominee Mitt Romney by approximately 92,000 ballots.
This year, both Biden and Trump have made efforts to win over skeptics, including reaching out to each other’s supporters. Biden has appealed to Haley’s backers, while the Trump campaign has engaged with Muslim and Arab Americans in battleground states like Michigan and Pennsylvania.
However, the 2024 election differs from recent decades in several ways.
The Biden-Trump rematch marks the first such repeat since 1952 and 1956, with the same candidates facing off against each other again.
Furthermore, with Biden and Trump quickly securing their nominations, the country now faces the longest general election season in recent history—over seven months. At the same time, polling reflects an unusual level of uncertainty.
Another unusual dynamic is the apparent dislike for both Biden and Trump. Both men have negative approval ratings, and combined, they have an average disapproval rating higher than any presidential race since 1980.
This has drawn attention to the so-called “double haters” who don’t support either candidate. Their decisions in November are seen as potentially influential, should they choose to vote.
“I don’t even want to vote anymore… it’s a nightmare,” said Joann Kama, a retired African American voter from Amityville, New York, expressing her discouragement about the current election and politics in America. She doesn’t plan to cast a ballot in November.
John Jackson, a voter from Florida, also expressed his lack of enthusiasm, saying he’s “not excited” about voting in the general election.
Samantha Guerrero, a Republican from Austin, Texas, summed up the sentiment, saying, “I just don’t approve of either candidate at this point. I don’t want another four years of either one of them.”
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